Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Mugabe's Plan Unveiled

Well, I predicted a runoff in Zimbabwe and that looks like that's what it will be. I'm not saying I can predict the future and I can tell you what will happen tomorrow or the day after, but what I can do is look at the circumstances and make an educated prediction, in this case I was partially right. Mugabe is a smart man, a colleague of mine interviewed him at the start of the land seizure and, today, he remarked to me that Mugabe's a calculating, educated man who really has the best for Zimbabweans at heart. I am not defending him, I believe he held onto power for too long and that inevitably corrupted him, but what I'm saying is that Zimbabwe's economy was orchastrated by foreign powers. How does a stock lose its value? When it has more people wanting to dump it that want to scoop it. How about a currency? Currencies are bought and sold just as stocks. If more people are encouraged and scared into selling a particular currency until it's worthless, the country itself, even though much hasn't changed with its production infracture, will find it harder to buy necessary supplies because everything now costs more. Investors work off fear and predictions. Zimbabwe's currency was devalued because people assumed that its economy would not continue to retain its level without white farmers, and not because it actually wasn't able, too. Now, as time went on it tanked and then more predications, dumping, and yet more tanking. Had the Western media not scared investors into dumping the Zim Dollar, I believe the situation in Zimbabwe would have turned out different. After all, what the western people are saying is that an African cannot till the land and make it produce as much as a white person can. I mean, honestly, for thousands of years our ancestors tilled the land and fed themselves, but when the white man comes we are suddenly unable to rise to the occasion of providing enough to feed a modern society. I am not a racist of sorts, nor do I hate any particular race, I am as much white as I am black, but this sounds like Thomas Jefferson saying black people are inferior in physical and intellectual terms. Zimbabweans can feed Zimbabweans anytime if the playfield is fair. The West simply played a card Mugabe was not anticipating and could not trump: Currency devaluation leading to economic collapse.
But, anyways, going back to the thought I had before I became sidetracked, I predicted a runoff and that's what seems like will occur in Zimbabwe. I also predicted that Tsvangirai would not be among the top two vote-getters, but I was wrong on that one. I, however, still think Makoni will end up in power, so pull your chair closer, squint your eyes, prepare your mind, and here goes my prediction. Remember, if I'm wrong let who's without wrongness cast the first "You were wrong."
As I said before, Mugabe knows that there is no way Zimbabwe will return to prosperity with him at the helm. He orchestrated a plan that involved a defection by Simba Makoni. You will notice that the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission has not released any figures on the presidential election itself and everything we're reading or hearing is unofficial and, therefore, pure hearsay. When the results come out, Makoni will be in the top two, with Mugabe coming in a calculated third. Mugabe will conveniently throw his support behind Makoni because, he will say, he does not want a crony of the West. The ZANU-PF faithful will back Makoni and he will barely be over the 50% needed for a victory. Farfetched? Maybe, but as long as the armed forces are with Mugabe they will back whomever he supports, and whoever the armed forces support will be the one who will ultimately end up in power.
Now, could I be wrong? That's more than a possibility, afterall I am no prophet, but my evaluation of the situation tells me that Mugabe is ready to step down and that he will make sure his chosen successor is the next "democratically"-elected president of Zimbabwe.

No comments: