All, or at least most, of us are fully aware of the situation in Zimbabwe. The inflation is the worst in the world and political oppression is mild to moderate. Facing increasing pressure from friends and foes alike, Mugabe has come up with a genius plan: Stage a falling-out with a "former" friend, send some high-ranking ZANU-PF with him, and make it look as real as possible.
First of all, I would like to point out, again, that Zimbabwe is in utter economic anarchy. Secondly, its economy, when it was healthy, relied heavily on agriculture. Thirdly, outside aid, which Zimbabwe greatly needs to rebuild, can only come with the end of the Mugabe regime. Mugabe knew these things when he put his plan in motion.
Now look at Simba Makoni. Lately he served as minister of finance where he was sometimes at odds with Mugabe and his upper-echelon ZANU-PF cronies. He also has experience as minister of Industry and Energy Development and deputy minister of Agriculture. Add in there his ten years as Executive Secretary of SADC (Southern African Development Community) and you have someone with the right credentials to get Zimbabwe where it used to be. Zimbabwe's specialty in SADC was agriculture, an area that has taken an enormous hit since the expulsion of the minority white farmers around the turn of the century.
Mugabe staged the defection of Makoni so that he can be a legitimate candidate who can bring in western aid money. The west will like Makoni because of his credentials and so-called courage to stand up to Mugabe. Some people already suspect him to be funded and supported by the West. Which plays into Mugabe's plan. Makoni had denied being a puppet of the West, but he has not denied being anyone's puppet.
So, Mugabe picks this guy, encourages him to run for the presidency, funds him, gives him the protection he needs, sends a few high-ranking party officials to support him, and then sells him to the West. All this, of course, behind the scenes. Come elections time, neither candidate will garner at least 50% of the votes, which means a runoff. The top two vote-getters would be included, which means Tsvangirai, who will get the least votes (because of vote-rigging, of course).
Mugabe vs. Makoni. Makoni comes out a winner in the runoff, but the biggest winner will be Mugabe who will still be making important decisions behind the scenes and enjoying a big chunk of aid money newly pouring into the country as a result of his magnific plan.
All of this, I must admit, is what I would do if I was in his boots.
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5 comments:
Nice imagination, I don't see it being that way.
What a story!!!
But is it really that easy?
as I see it, Mugabe has quite a lot to lose if he does not win the election. whether he's sets his successor through devious ways or not. Wouldn't he now be prosecuted by all the human rights groups vowing for his blood? Unlike Russia, I am not also sure about how certain he is to be about his influence once he has been ousted. Western financing comes with many strings attached and I am sure that most would request a complete alienation of the new government from Mugabe or his colleagues. Including the freedom to prosecute him in international courts if need arise. I will be pleasantly surprised to see Mugabe lose his presidential seat, cause I don't see how he can survive without it
The only faulty thing that I can find with this article is that Mugabe is seeking western aid. This is not the case. Diplomatic pressure from the US (and others) has caused him to look elsewhere. China offered him an answer by selling Zimbabwe military vehicles (fighter planes and 100 armored vehicles) and arms in exchange for potential economic access. Zimbabwe has a major, untapped raw resource in platinum, something that can be levied to fund Zimbabwe's infrastructure and thereby starting an international market. The only trick is getting Mugabe and his party out of power by whatever means. China has already proven its unreliability in pumping back into state revenue [see the example of Ethiopia for inference]; Zimbabwe will continue to spiral downward with Chinese "aid". China also supported the successive elections of Mugabe as a strategy for gaining better diplomatic access, something that perpetuates humanitarian plight. Mugabe and Company won't leave their posts no matter what; ultimately, the only way forward for Zimbabwe is the eradication of this regime and the installation of a government that can perfect the mutual success of all tribes and factions in the country -- anything less will perpetuate resentment and perhaps violence over inequalities.
"Tsvangirai, who will get the least votes (because of vote-rigging, of course)"
Looks like he's winning though, and the MDC in general by a landslide. Who could've predicted...?
We'll just have to see if he can keep a hold of it.
Well, I am no Nostradamus, but I find it hard (not impossible) to envision Mugabe handing over power to Tsvangirai. Not to mention the Armed Forces, I find it hard as well to see them accepting someone who wasn't there at the beginning fighting for freedom in the trenches. But we will see...
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