Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Zimbabwe: Worst-Case Scenario

It has been a while since I commented on what's going on in Africa on this space, but I feel my self-imposed exile is over. It doesn't take much to realize that our leaders are mostly bigots who care for their own pockets and hides. Situations in Sudan, Guinea, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and elsewhere have taken a turn for the worse; hunger and disease still wreck havoc wherever they please; and we are still begging for more enslaving foreign aid.
Today, however, I want to put forward a worst-case scenario for Zimbabwe and its fledgling unity government. There are several things going on in Zimbabwe that we have to keep in mind; 1. The generals are wholly behind Mugabe. 2. These generals will not support an MDC-dominated government. 3 . Mugabe is only in power because he continues to protect the interests of these privileged few. 4. Mugabe and his supporters are currently under sanctions (travel and otherwise) while MDC leaders are not. 5. Mugabe's ZANU-PF agreed to the power-sharing agreement in hopes that these sanctions would be lifted- which has not happened. 6. Mugabe and his supporters deem this a sign of the West being biased against them. 7. Mugabe is old (85???) and won't be around much longer...his fellow freedom fighter comrades are being buried daily. 8. There is no clear successor among his ZANU-PF leaders.
Having said all that, what would happen if Mugabe suddenly died of a heart attack or, simply, old age? Would the generals back Tsvangirai? Would the people have enough courage to stand up and ask for him to be installed president?
I personally believe that there would be a coup, Tsvangirai (if he's in the country) and his supporters would be executed en masse, and democracy would take a step back to the Middle Ages...at least in Zimbabwe.
I believe the best option now is for the Western governments to remove their sanctions, appease Mugabe and his henchmen, and let Tsvangirai continue to help their economy. The economy wasn't hammered by Mugabe, anyways, but by those very same Western sanctions. This is the time when the African leaders should step in, shun the actions of the west (I mean, show that they really are against them by taking actual measures to show that rather than just talking about it) and strengthen the Zimbabwean economy and government.
If Mugabe dies, expect all that the West has done to be wasted effort, sanctions never really accomplish much, I can guarantee you that Mugabe and his folks are not starving, dying of cholera, or lacking in bullets to enforce their rule. Look at Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Iraq before the invasion...it's the common person that suffers, and that common person is busy scrapping for means to feed himself that he has no time to scheme the removal of the dictator you are trying to depose.

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